Airfare Up 22% as Fewer Fly, and Airlines Say It’s Fine

Fewer Americans are flying this year, and the nation’s biggest carriers say they are not losing sleep over it. With ticket prices climbing on a spike in jet fuel costs, airline executives told investors this week that collecting higher fares matters more than filling every seat.

According to CNBC, the number of travelers screened at U.S. airport checkpoints is on track for its first annual decline since 2020. Since April, when airlines began warning in earnest that fuel costs would hit profits, about 9.3 million fewer people have been screened compared with the same period of 2025, per Transportation Security Administration figures cited in the report. That is a drop of less than 2%, but it follows years of growth.

The price pressure is hard to miss. Fares in September were up more than 22% from a year earlier, according to the latest inflation reading. Fare tracker Hopper expects this holiday season to bring the most expensive tickets in years. Jet fuel, an airline’s biggest expense after labor, is running more than double year-ago levels, with U.S. Gulf Coast spot prices at $4.63 a gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

American Airlines offered the clearest statement of strategy. Its load factor, a measure of how full planes are flying, fell to 83.4% in the third quarter from 86% a year earlier. “We’re actively prioritizing yield versus load factor and really happy as we see it,” Chief Commercial Officer Nat Pieper said on Thursday’s earnings call, adding that the approach fits the carrier’s premium investments.

Southwest tells a similar story. Its average third-quarter fare was $231.69, up close to $50 from a year ago, and that figure excludes new fees for checked bags and seats closer to the front. Revenue passengers fell 3.2% to about 33.5 million. Even so, CEO Bob Jordan said fares came in about $3 above forecast and that passenger volumes also exceeded expectations.

Not every carrier is shrinking. United flew 2.4% more passengers than a year ago, and its unit revenue rose 16%, the biggest jump since the pandemic. “I’ve been pleasantly surprised at the industry’s ability this year to raise yields and pass through much of the increase in fuel prices,” CEO Scott Kirby said on Wednesday’s call. He suggested that a continued focus on yield over load factor could alone push the industry toward double-digit margins next year. United expects to pay an average of $4.80 a gallon for fuel in the fourth quarter, up from $3.90 in the third.

The optimism has limits. American, United, Delta Air Lines and Southwest all cut their 2026 profit forecasts this month, and American is the only one of the four expecting a loss for the year. Several carriers have also trimmed growth plans or warned they may scale back capacity expansion. Fewer bookable seats could keep fares elevated if demand holds.

Executives said overall demand remains robust, particularly for premium cabins, where seats can cost hundreds or thousands of dollars more than coach. The next test comes from smaller carriers such as Frontier Airlines and Allegiant Air, which are set to report in the coming weeks. Both have traditionally served price-sensitive customers, so their results may show whether budget travelers are pulling back.

The collapse of Spirit Airlines, which went out of business in early May, is another factor. “Some of its customers have likely stopped flying,” Bank of America said in a research note on Thursday.